Policy Catalysts + Improved Supply-Demand Dynamics Drive Nkɔsoɔ a Ɛkɔ Akyirikyiri wɔ The PVC Industry mu

Wɔ bere tenten mu no, China PVC adwuma no gyina nnyinasosɛm a ɛyɛ den a ɛbɛma wɔanya adwene pa so. Nea edi kan no, "anti-involution" nhyehyeɛ a wɔbɛkɔ so de adi dwuma, a anyinam ahoɔden boɔ a ɛsono ne toɔ a wɔtua wɔ nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne ho a wɔbɛyi afiri hɔ ka ho no bɛma tumi a ɛnyɛ adwuma yie no afiri hɔ ntɛmntɛm. Nea ɛtɔ so mmienu, wiase nyinaa PVC tumi foforɔ nkɔsoɔ bɛkɔ so ayɛ ketewa wɔ mfeɛ a ɛreba no mu, na ɛbɛma nkɔsoɔ nkakrankakra aba wɔ nneɛma a wɔde ma-ahwehwɛdeɛ kari pɛ mu. Nea ɛto so abiɛsa no, wiase nyinaa akansi a ɛwɔ China PVC adwumayɛ mu no kɔ so kɔ soro, na ɛwɔ kwan kɛse a wobetumi atrɛw mu wɔ gua ahorow a wɔde kɔ amannɔne no mu.

Wɔ ɔman no mu "anti-involution" nhyehyeɛ a ɛbɛkɔ akyiri no akyi no, ɛfiri Ɔpɛpɔn 24 kɔsi 31, 2026 no, nhwehwɛmu kuo a ɛwɔ Guo Tai Futures kɔsraa Shaanxi, Ningxia ne Inner Mongolia-mpɔtam akɛseɛ mmiɛnsa a wɔyɛ PVC-wɔ China. Na botaeɛ no ne sɛ wɔbɛhwɛ nkɛntɛnsoɔ ankasa a nhyehyɛeɛ titire te sɛ anyinam ahoɔden boɔ a ɛsono ne toɔ a wɔde tua nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne a wɔayi afiri hɔ no anya wɔ PVC adwumayɛkuo no so, na wɔahwɛ nkɔsoɔ a aba wɔ tumi a wɔatew so, nnwumakuo adwumayɛ tebea, ne on-beae a wɔde ma-ahwehwɛdeɛ nokwasɛm mu.Mpɔtam a wɔyɛɛ nhwehwɛmu no yɛ PVC tumi tɔn ɔpepem 7.45-a egyina calcium carbide-so, a egyina hɔ ma 25.55% wɔ China PVC tumi nyinaa mu ne 36% wɔ ɔman no calcium carbide-gyina PVC tumi mu. Wɔsan nso gye calcium carbide ahoɔden tɔn ɔpepem 22.89, a ɛyɛ China calcium carbide ahoɔden nyinaa mu 60.88%. Bio nso, saa mpɔtam yi yɛ mmeaeɛ a wɔbɛsɔ anyinam ahoɔden boɔ a ɛsono emu biara ahwɛ, na ɛma nhwehwɛmu nhwɛsoɔ no yɛ nnwuma no ananmusifoɔ kɛseɛ.

Saa nhwehwɛmu yi twee adwene sii nhyehyɛe atitiriw abien so: anyinam ahoɔden bo a ɛsono ne tow a wɔtew so wɔ PVC a wɔde kɔ amannɔne no a wobeyi afi hɔ. Sɛ́ nneɛma titiriw a wɔayɛ wɔ "anti-involution" nhyehyɛe nhyehyɛe no ase no, abien no nyinaa anya nkɛntɛnso kɛse wɔ ɛka nhyehyɛe, nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne tebea ne tumi a wɔde afrafra a ɛwɔ PVC adwumayɛ mu no so.

Ɛfa anyinam ahoɔden boɔ a ɛsono no ho no, Department of Industry and Information Technology a ɛwɔ Shaanxi Mantam mu no de nkɔmmɔdie krataa a wɔayɛ no foforɔ maeɛ wɔ December 2025 mu, a wɔayɛ nhyehyɛeɛ sɛ wɔde anyinam ahoɔden boɔ a ɛsono no bedi dwuma wɔ ɔkwan a ɛfata so firi July 1, a ɛfa nnwuma ason a ɛgye ahoɔden-a calcium carbide ne PVC ka ho. Mpɔtam hɔ PVC ne calcium carbide tumi a ɛwɔ Shaanxi no yɛ 7.18% ne 9% wɔ ɔman no nyinaa mu, na nhyehyɛe no bɛma calcium carbide a wɔyɛ no ho ka akɔ soro tẽẽ.Sɛnea nhwehwɛmu no kyerɛ no, ɛda adi kɛse sɛ wɔde nhyehyɛe no bedi dwuma na ɛto fapem a wɔde bedi dwuma wɔ ɔman no mu nyinaa. Sɛ wɔde di dwuma a, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ PVC a wɔyɛ wɔ Shaanxi ho ka bɛkɔ soro yuan 70 wɔ tɔn biara mu, na ɛba fam sen akontaabu a wɔde susuw nneɛma ho. Nnwumakuw betumi asiw nkɛntɛnso no ano denam fango-tumi a wɔde besi ananmu ne abɔnten so adetɔ a ɛba fam-calcium carbide a efi Mongolia Mfinimfini fam no so, na ɛde nkɛntɛnso ankasa kakraa bi ba mpɔtam hɔfo a wɔyɛ PVC so.Nnwumakuw a wobisabisaa wɔn nsɛm no taa gye toom sɛ anyinam ahoɔden bo a ɛsono no nyɛ ɔmantam nhyehyɛe na mmom ɛyɛ ɔman no mfiridwuma mu nsakrae nhyehyɛe, a wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ ɛbɛyɛ adwinnade a ɛho hia a wɔde hyɛ mmara ahoɔden-nnwumakuw a wɔde ahoɔden pii di dwuma ne gua so nkɔso-a ɛhwɛ anohyeto ahorow a ɛfa nnwuma ho ka ho.

Wɔ January 9 no, Sikasɛm Dwumadibea ne Ɔman Towtua Dwumadibea no boom de...Dawurubɔ a ɛfa Nsakrae a Wɔbɛyɛ wɔ Tow a Wɔtew So wɔ Nneɛma a Wɔde Kɔ Amannɔne Ho Nhyehyɛe a Wɔyɛ wɔ Photovoltaic ne Nneɛma Afoforo ho, a ɛda adi pefee sɛ ɛka PVC resin, PVC a wɔanhyɛ no plastic ne PVC a wɔde plastic ayɛ ho wɔ nsakraeɛ no mu.Saa nhyehyɛeɛ yi kanyan bere tiaa bi -"rush export" adeyɛ wɔ ɔman no mu. Mprempren, PVC a wɔde kɔ amannɔne dodow no ara adi kan atɔn nneɛma a wɔkra akosi February, na nnwumakuw binom mpo atew ɔman no mu aguadi so de wɔn adwene asi amannɔne tɔn so, na ɛboa nneɛma a wɔyɛ no dodow.Esiane sɛ po so hyɛn nhyehyɛe aka no nti, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ PVC a wɔde kɔ amannɔne no bɛyɛ mmerɛw wɔ March mfiase. Sɛ yɛde osutɔ bere a ɛwɔ Asia Kesee Fam Apuei ne Kesee Fam ka ho a, nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne no bɛhyɛn nsakrae bere a ɛyɛ nsakrae mu wɔ April akyi, na ɛda adi sɛ ɛbɛkɔ so akɔ fam akosi July.Sɛ yɛhwɛ nnwuma kwan so a, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ tow a wɔtew so wɔ nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne ho a wobeyi afi hɔ no bɛma amanaman ntam PVC bo akɔ soro na akanyan mpɔtam hɔ aguadi nhyehyɛe foforo wɔ bere tiaa bi mu. Nanso, bere tenten mu no, esiane mfaso a ɛda nsow a China wɔ wɔ ɛka ne tumi so nti, nhyehyɛe no bɛhyɛ ntrɛwmu a ɛfa nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne ho ne nneɛma ahorow a wɔde yɛ adwuma no ho nkuran. Saa berɛ yi, nkɛntɛnsoɔ a ɛwɔ ɔman no mu ethylene-gyina PVC ayɛfoɔ so no sua, berɛ a nnwuma a ɛho ka yɛ kɛseɛ-a ɛwɔ Henan, Shandong ne mpɔtam foforɔ no betumi ahyia nhyɛsoɔ a ɛfa tumi a wɔayi afiri hɔ ho.

Wɔ nnwumakuo adwumayɛ ho no, PVC nnwuma a ɛwɔ Shaanxi, Ningxia ne Inner Mongolia no taa kura sika a ɛkɔ so yie a wɔankyerɛw adehwereɛ biara. Wɔ December 2025 mfinimfini-kɔsi-awiei nkutoo na nnwuma binom hweree sika a ɛkɔ so bere tiaa bi esiane PVC ne caustic soda bo a ɛkɔɔ fam dodo nti. Wɔ saa bere no mu no, na nnwuma a ne bo yɛ mmerɛw-PVC a ɛba fam sen yuan 4,000/ton ne nsu caustic soda a ɛba fam sen yuan 2,000/ton- ho yɛ na, na nnwumakuw yɛɛ ho biribi denam bo a wɔde wɔn ho hyɛɛ mu denneennen na wɔtew ahyɛde a wɔde wɔn nsa hyɛɛ ase so.Wɔ nhwehwɛmu bere no mu no, PVC SG-5 bo san kɔɔ soro boroo 4,500 yuan/ton, ne caustic soda bo kɔɔ so yɛɛ 2,100–2,300 yuan/ton, na ɛde nnwuma mu mfaso san baa nea ɛfata mu.

Ɛdefa tumi a wɔayi afi hɔ ho no, nnwuma no da mpɔtam hɔ nsonsonoe a ɛda adi pefee adi. Esiane sɛ atifi fam atɔe mantam no de ne ho to mfaso horow a ɛwɔ fango ne anyinam ahoɔden mu so nti, abɛyɛ ɔman no mu ɛka a wɔbɔ wɔ PVC a wɔyɛ ho. Nnwumakuw a wɔyɛɛ nhwehwɛmu no nyinaa gye dii sɛ saa mantam yi renyɛ nea edi kan a wobehu sɛ wɔbɛtew tumi so.Wɔn a wɔyɛ PVC a egyina calcium carbide- so wɔ Henan, Shandong ne mpɔtam afoforo, a ɛka a ɛkɔ soro kakra no ayɛ wɔn adesoa no, ɛda adi kɛse sɛ wɔbɛka tumi a edi kan a wobeyi afi hɔ no ho.Sɛnea adwumakuw no te no, mpɛn pii no, wɔn a wɔyɛ PVC a ɔman-wɔ no hyia nsɛnnennen te sɛ ahonyadeɛ a n’ankasa -wɔ a ɛnnɔɔso, boɔ a ɛkɔ fam ne sika kɛseɛ a wɔbɔ, ne nneɛma a wɔde asie ho nhyɛsoɔ kɛseɛ wɔ nneɛma a ɛfiri-nneɛma so; ebinom nso hu amane wɔ tumi a ɛyɛ mmerɛw a wotumi de kɔ amannɔne no ho. Nea ɛne eyi bɔ abira no, ankorankoro nnwuma kura adwumayɛ mu nkɔso pa ne gua so adwene a ɛyɛ anidaso kɛse mu, a mfiridwuma nkɔnsɔnkɔnsɔn a wɔde bɛka abom koraa, ɛka mu mfaso a ɛwɔ anyinam ahoɔden mfiri a wɔn ankasa na wɔwɔ so, ne bo ne adetɔn ho akwan a ɛyɛ mmerɛw boa.

PVC adwumayɛkuo awotwe a wɔaka ho asɛm wɔ nhwehwɛmu yi mu no bi ne ɔman-adwumayɛkuo, ankorankoro ne mfimfini aban-nnwumakuo (CSOEs), a adwumayɛ mu nsonsonoeɛ kɛseɛ wɔ wɔn mu.Nnwumakuo a ɔman-wɔ dodoɔ no ara hu amane wɔ mfiridwuma nkɔnsɔnkɔnsɔn mmoa a ɛnwie pɛyɛ ne adwumayɛ mu nhyɛsoɔ kɛseɛ ho. Mpɛn pii no, ankorankoro nnwumakuw wɔ anidaso wɔ daakye gua no ho esiane ɛka a wɔhwɛ so ne adwumayɛ a ɛyɛ mmerɛw nti. Ɛwom sɛ CSOE ahorow no nneɛma ahorow bi retu mmirika wɔ adehwere mu de, nanso wɔkura adwumayɛ a ɛyɛ den a mfaso wɔ so wɔ nneɛma nhyehyɛe a edi mũ-akuw mu ne sika a ɛkɔ so mu, a wokura anidaso a ɛyɛ ahwɛyiye wɔ gua no ho.

Sɛ wɔka nhyehyɛe mu nkɛntɛnso, nnwumakuw dwumadi ne on-site gua so tebea bom a, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ PVC gua no bɛda "ɛkɔ soro ansa na Ahohuru Bere Afahyɛ no aba, ɛba fam wɔ dapɔnna no akyi" nhyehyɛe adi wɔ bere tiaa mu. Wɔ bere tenten mu no, ɛbɛhu nkɔsoɔ ketewa bi a ɛnam nneɛma mmienu a ɛde nhyehyɛeɛ a ɛma nneɛma kɔ so ne nneɛma a wɔde ma-ahwehwɛdeɛ a ɛkɔ anim no boa.

PVC gua no huu "ahohuru bere mu gua ketewaa bi" ansa na Ahohuru Bere Afahyɛ no reba, a nneɛma atitiriw anan na ɛde bae:Nea edi kan no, calcium carbide ho ka a ɛkɔɔ soro no maa ɛka ho boaa.Nea ɛto so abien no, PVC a wɔakora so nyinaa wɔ ɔman no mu ayɛfo mu no kɔɔ so yɛɛ ketewaa, na na ɛyɛ adapɛn 2–4 ansa na wɔretɔn. Ɛkame ayɛ sɛ wɔtɔn nneɛma a wɔyɛe ansa na Ahohuru Bere Afahyɛ no reba no nyinaa wiei, na ɛmaa nnwumakuw no nyaa gyinabea a emu yɛ den wɔ nneɛma bo ho nkitahodi mu.Nea ɛto so abiɛsa no, "ahopere a wɔde kɔ amannɔne" ansa na wɔretu tow a wɔtew so wɔ nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne ho no kɔɔ so gyinaa nneɛma bo so.Nea ɛto so anan no, soda bo a ɛba fam a ɛyɛ hyew no nyaa mfaso wɔ ɛka a wɔbɔ wɔ PVC a wɔyɛ no ho.

Nanso, wɔ Ahohuru Bere Afahyɛ no akyi no, gua no behyia nhyɛso ahorow pii. Ɔkwan baako so no, nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne no bɛkɔ fam wɔ "rush export" mfɛnsere no awiei akyi. Ɔkwan foforo so no, akwanhwɛ a ɛne sɛ wɔbɛma nneɛma a wɔde asie wɔ ɔman no mu no afi hɔ na ɔman no mu ahiade a ɛbɛbrɛ ase, ne tow a wɔtew so wɔ nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne ho a wobeyi afi hɔ no bɛka nneɛma bo ho.

Wɔ bere tenten mu no, China PVC adwumayɛkuw no kura nnyinasosɛm pa a ɛyɛ den mu.Nea edi kan no, "anti-involution" nhyehyɛe ahorow a wɔbɛkɔ so de adi dwuma, a anyinam ahoɔden bo a ɛsono ne tow a wɔde tua wɔ nneɛma a wɔde kɔ amannɔne ho a wobeyi afi hɔ ka ho no bɛma wɔayi tumi a entumi nyɛ adwuma yiye no afi hɔ ntɛmntɛm, ama mfiridwuma tumi nhyehyɛe no ayɛ papa, na ama gua so kyɛfa a ɛwɔ tumi a ɛkorɔn-yɛ papa no akɔ soro bio.Nea ɛto so abien, wɔ 2026 mu no, China PVC ahoɔden a wɔbɛyi no bɛduru tɔn 895,000, berɛ a wiase nyinaa tumi foforɔ bɛyɛ tɔn 705,000 pɛ, na ɛkyerɛ sɛ nneɛma a wɔde ma no so tew mfitiaseɛ. Wiase nyinaa PVC tumi ntrɛwmu a ɛba fam ne tumi a entumi nyɛ adwuma yiye a wobeyi afi hɔ ntɛmntɛm wɔ mfe a ɛreba no mu no bɛma nkɔso aba nkakrankakra wɔ nneɛma a wɔde ma-ahwehwɛde a ɛkari pɛ mu.Nea ɛto so abiɛsa no, China PVC adwumayɛkuw no de mfaso a ɛda adi pefee wɔ ɛka ne tumi so hoahoa ne ho. Wɔ amannɔne tumi a ɛyɛ den mu no, wiase nyinaa akansi a ɛwɔ China PVC adwumayɛ mu no kɔ so yɛ den, na ɛma wotumi de nneɛma pii kɔ amannɔne.

Sɛ yɛka ne nyinaa bom a, nneɛma a wɔde ma-ahwehwɛdeɛ mu nkɔsoɔ a ɛkɔ anim ne "anti-involution" nhyehyɛeɛ a ɛkanyan no ma mmoa mmienu ma PVC adwumayɛkuo no, na ɛsi ne su pa a ɛkɔ so bere tenten-si so dua.